How to elicit sound probabilistic reasoning: Beyond word problems


  • Girotto Vittorio
  • Gonzalez Michel

document type



Barbey & Sloman (B&S) conclude that natural frequency theorists have raised a fundamental question: What are the conditions that compel individuals to reason extensionally? We argue that word problems asking for it numerical judgment used by these theorists cannot answer this question. We present evidence that nonverbal tasks call elicit correct intuitions of posterior probability even in preschoolers.

more information